Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.73 – 54.97

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.1 ±16.2

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 89.93Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 14.31Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9779Gladiator Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 33.49Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.4 ±20.2

7833FALCONS

Provisional

Season APEX 35Event APEX -8.08Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 56.19Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7570New Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 6.86Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8817, 6404, 9779

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8817, 6404, 9779

Auto

6.3 5%

Teleop

90.0 68%

Endgame

35.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7833, 8581, 7570

/ 100 compat

Projected

55 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7833, 8581, 7570

Auto

25.8 58%

Teleop

-7.8 0%

Endgame

26.3 59%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.7pts

Blue projected score55pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.8
Score range: 28–165
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.1Season APEX164.4

6.3Auto25.8

90Teleop-7.8

35.8Endgame26.3

64Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	17
teleop	58	25
endgame	23	21
foul	60	5
total	180	68

Result

Final score

180 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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