Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

329.12 – 124.69

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.7 ±15.4

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 92.89Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 182.74Rank 1Record 9-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 53.49Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±16.2

9494Hanabi

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -12.22Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 113.5Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 23.41Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 79, 180, 4707

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 79, 180, 4707

Auto

80.1 25%

Teleop

182.0 56%

Endgame

64.2 20%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9494, 3932, 2152

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9494, 3932, 2152

Auto

20.7 19%

Teleop

70.6 66%

Endgame

16.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score329.1pts

Blue projected score124.7pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204.4
Score range: 98–356
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.7Season APEX346.6

80.1Auto20.7

182Teleop70.6

64.2Endgame16.1

39Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	28
teleop	169	93
endgame	43	70
foul	0	0
total	299	191

Result

Final score

299 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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