Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.47 – 14.99

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±17

10635Merengue

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 16.39Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 45.54Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 51.54Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120.3 ±18.8

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 29.32Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6686Bionic Broncos

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -39.28Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8791Mighty Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 24.95Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10635, 7403, 2641

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10635, 7403, 2641

Auto

39.7 35%

Teleop

47.2 41%

Endgame

26.9 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1369, 6686, 8791

/ 100 compat

Projected

15 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1369, 6686, 8791

Auto

16.6 83%

Teleop

5.1 25%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.5pts

Blue projected score15pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.5
Score range: -12–140
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.7Season APEX120.3

39.7Auto16.6

47.2Teleop5.1

26.9Endgame-1.7

15Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	22
teleop	32	5
endgame	11	14
foul	0	0
total	66	41

Result

Final score

66 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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