Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.88 – 137.61

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.3 ±16.4

39544-H Electrotechs

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 24.71Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 70.75Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5872Wiredcats

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 30.42Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.9 ±15.1

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 134.29Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX -3.5Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9040Sunset Robo Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 6.82Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3954, 9404, 5872

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3954, 9404, 5872

Auto

30.9 25%

Teleop

61.5 49%

Endgame

32.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 59, 5557, 9040

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 59, 5557, 9040

Auto

37.3 30%

Teleop

73.7 59%

Endgame

14.7 12%

Strengths

· 59 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.9pts

Blue projected score137.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.7
Score range: 99–165
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.3Season APEX437.9

30.9Auto37.3

61.5Teleop73.7

32.3Endgame14.7

35Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	52
teleop	39	110
endgame	47	33
foul	0	0
total	124	195

Result

Final score

124 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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