Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.98 – 115.96

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.7 ±16.2

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -1.2Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 163.87Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10616Iron Eagle Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 30.31Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.9 ±17.3

9155New Tech Kraken

Season APEX 78Event APEX 10.11Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 77

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 67.03Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7652Miami Beach Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 38.82Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10323, 2383, 10616

/ 100 compat

Projected

193 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10323, 2383, 10616

Auto

27.5 14%

Teleop

105.7 55%

Endgame

59.1 31%

Strengths

· 2383 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9155, 179, 7652

/ 100 compat

Projected

116 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9155, 179, 7652

Auto

26.9 22%

Teleop

42.3 35%

Endgame

53.2 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score193pts

Blue projected score116pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77
Score range: 89–220
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.7Season APEX375.9

27.5Auto26.9

105.7Teleop42.3

59.1Endgame53.2

80Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	22
teleop	115	87
endgame	50	60
foul	0	0
total	202	169

Result

Final score

202 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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