Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.93 – 219.13

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212 ±19.6

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 32.02Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 47.93Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11436CougarBots

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 18.98Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.4 ±18

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 176.58Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10616Iron Eagle Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 16.04Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11267MASAL

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 26.51Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4707, 8581, 11436

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4707, 8581, 11436

Auto

21.6 22%

Teleop

38.9 40%

Endgame

37.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 59, 10616, 11267

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 59, 10616, 11267

Auto

44.5 20%

Teleop

128.4 59%

Endgame

44.4 20%

Strengths

· 59 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.9pts

Blue projected score219.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.2
Score range: 67–251
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212Season APEX408.4

21.6Auto44.5

38.9Teleop128.4

37Endgame44.4

41Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	34
teleop	16	107
endgame	42	20
foul	0	0
total	77	161

Result

Final score

77 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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