Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.79 – 222.28

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.6 ±19.2

7570New Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 8.03Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11436CougarBots

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 12.19Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 12.57Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.3 ±17.3

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 195.96Rank 1Record 9-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6686Bionic Broncos

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -14.06Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 40.38Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7570, 11436, 6404

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7570, 11436, 6404

Auto

6.4 34%

Teleop

14.5 76%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 180, 6686, 6743

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 6686, 6743

Auto

63.1 29%

Teleop

124.1 57%

Endgame

32.0 15%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score32.8pts

Blue projected score222.3pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -189.5
Score range: 6–249
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 148.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.6Season APEX316.3

6.4Auto63.1

14.5Teleop124.1

-1.9Endgame32

105Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	55
teleop	17	33
endgame	19	8
foul	0	0
total	50	96

Result

Final score

50 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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