Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.72 – 215.67

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.3 ±18.8

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 35.32Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9494Hanabi

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -14.41Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7833FALCONS

Provisional

Season APEX 35Event APEX -0.19Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.2 ±15.3

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 34.81Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 125.37Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 55.49Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2641, 9494, 7833

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2641, 9494, 7833

Auto

37.4 100%

Teleop

-5.6 0%

Endgame

-9.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8581, 108, 8859

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8581, 108, 8859

Auto

26.0 12%

Teleop

139.4 66%

Endgame

47.3 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score20.7pts

Blue projected score215.7pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194.9
Score range: -5–242
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 146.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.3Season APEX341.2

37.4Auto26

-5.6Teleop139.4

-9Endgame47.3

70Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	45
teleop	23	186
endgame	18	86
foul	5	15
total	71	332

Result

Final score

71 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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