Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.39 – 133.99

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±19.7

10424ANKA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX -11.1Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9201TEAM FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 57.47Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 53.02Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.2 ±14.8

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 7.82Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 96.44Rank 10Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10635Merengue

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 29.73Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10424, 9201, 11138

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10424, 9201, 11138

Auto

22.0 19%

Teleop

64.2 55%

Endgame

30.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5557, 48, 10635

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5557, 48, 10635

Auto

37.0 28%

Teleop

89.2 67%

Endgame

7.5 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.4pts

Blue projected score134pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.6
Score range: 73–160
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.8Season APEX429.2

22Auto37

64.2Teleop89.2

30.3Endgame7.5

63Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	28
teleop	93	50
endgame	69	12
foul	0	0
total	184	90

Result

Final score

184 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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