Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.94 – 154.14

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 91 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.2 ±17.5

1744Robo-Rays Robotics

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 41.24Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9779Gladiator Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 33.5Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 65.2Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.7 ±18.4

10616Iron Eagle Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 49.18Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9040Sunset Robo Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 20.12Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 84.84Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1744, 9779, 7403

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1744, 9779, 7403

Auto

15.6 12%

Teleop

62.9 47%

Endgame

55.9 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10616, 9040, 9404

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10616, 9040, 9404

Auto

20.9 14%

Teleop

89.1 61%

Endgame

35.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.9pts

Blue projected score154.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.2
Score range: 113–181
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.2Season APEX230.7

15.6Auto20.9

62.9Teleop89.1

55.9Endgame35.4

26Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	23
teleop	14	25
endgame	9	14
foul	0	0
total	50	62

Result

Final score

50 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 91 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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