Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.46 – 69.73

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261 ±17.3

39544-H Electrotechs

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 2.94Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8791Mighty Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 10.99Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 47.53Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±17.5

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 21.72Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7652Miami Beach Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 53.98Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -5.97Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3954, 8791, 5472

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3954, 8791, 5472

Auto

11.2 23%

Teleop

18.3 38%

Endgame

19.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2152, 7652, 10323

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2152, 7652, 10323

Auto

11.1 16%

Teleop

21.1 30%

Endgame

38.1 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.5pts

Blue projected score69.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.3
Score range: 34–97
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261Season APEX237.1

11.2Auto11.1

18.3Teleop21.1

19.2Endgame38.1

125Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	13
teleop	96	15
endgame	45	17
foul	0	0
total	187	45

Result

Final score

187 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 75.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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