Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.14 – 196.85

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 59.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.1 ±12.2

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 32.53Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 44.62Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 162.99Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.7 ±13

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 96.52Rank 10Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 94.19Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 6.14Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5557, 1369, 2383

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5557, 1369, 2383

Auto

33.2 13%

Teleop

165.9 65%

Endgame

54.6 22%

Strengths

· 2383 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 48, 79, 1523

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 48, 79, 1523

Auto

31.6 17%

Teleop

112.5 60%

Endgame

42.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score240.1pts

Blue projected score196.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.3
Score range: 170–267
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 150.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.1Season APEX400.7

33.2Auto31.6

165.9Teleop112.5

54.6Endgame42

62Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	40
teleop	84	76
endgame	13	58
foul	5	0
total	144	174

Result

Final score

144 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 59.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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