Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.63 – 74.72

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 43 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.9 ±19.1

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 36.1Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 23.53Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9494Hanabi

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -13Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.2 ±19.2

9040Sunset Robo Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 24.74Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 71.7Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10424ANKA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX -21.72Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11138, 8581, 9494

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11138, 8581, 9494

Auto

24.3 47%

Teleop

22.2 43%

Endgame

5.2 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9040, 7403, 10424

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9040, 7403, 10424

Auto

26.4 35%

Teleop

2.4 3%

Endgame

45.6 61%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.6pts

Blue projected score74.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.1
Score range: 20–102
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 152.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.9Season APEX316.2

24.3Auto26.4

22.2Teleop2.4

5.2Endgame45.6

153Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	19
teleop	74	11
endgame	13	20
foul	0	0
total	108	50

Result

Final score

108 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 43 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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