Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.42 – 57.36

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.1 ±18.4

9779Gladiator Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 54.62Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7570New Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 39.22Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 87.58Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.5 ±18.1

9201TEAM FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 29.59Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

39544-H Electrotechs

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX -14.41Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 42.18Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9779, 7570, 9404

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9779, 7570, 9404

Auto

19.8 11%

Teleop

94.0 54%

Endgame

61.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9201, 3954, 2641

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9201, 3954, 2641

Auto

25.8 46%

Teleop

0.3 1%

Endgame

29.4 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score181.4pts

Blue projected score57.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.1
Score range: 29–209
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 153.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.1Season APEX236.5

19.8Auto25.8

94Teleop0.3

61Endgame29.4

71Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	30
teleop	64	73
endgame	27	34
foul	5	0
total	123	137

Result

Final score

123 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 69 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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