Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.4 – 226.21

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±14.9

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 56.88Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 35.59Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 96.93Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.5 ±18

9779Gladiator Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 30.52Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 173Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8791Mighty Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 22.69Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6743, 5410, 8859

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6743, 5410, 8859

Auto

29.5 16%

Teleop

96.0 52%

Endgame

59.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9779, 2383, 8791

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9779, 2383, 8791

Auto

37.7 17%

Teleop

120.2 55%

Endgame

61.5 28%

Strengths

· 2383 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.4pts

Blue projected score226.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.8
Score range: 157–258
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX374.5

29.5Auto37.7

96Teleop120.2

59.9Endgame61.5

109Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	86	130
endgame	21	87
foul	0	0
total	128	231

Result

Final score

128 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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