Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.69 – 137.5

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.2 ±16.2

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 21.87Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 32.94Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10635Merengue

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 17.88Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.2 ±17.7

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 107.8Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9155New Tech Kraken

Season APEX 78Event APEX 25.95Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 77

11436CougarBots

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 3.75Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5472, 2152, 10635

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5472, 2152, 10635

Auto

5.3 7%

Teleop

43.0 55%

Endgame

29.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 108, 9155, 11436

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 108, 9155, 11436

Auto

30.5 24%

Teleop

69.2 54%

Endgame

27.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.7pts

Blue projected score137.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.8
Score range: 45–166
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 153.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.2Season APEX301.2

5.3Auto30.5

43Teleop69.2

29.6Endgame27.9

77Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	30
teleop	46	125
endgame	35	31
foul	15	0
total	120	186

Result

Final score

120 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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