Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.68 – 101.58

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±13.5

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 146.02Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -44.19Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 40.85Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.2 ±16.2

7833FALCONS

Provisional

Season APEX 35Event APEX 45.21Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 36.29Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 20.08Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 59, 10323, 1369

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 59, 10323, 1369

Auto

30.3 21%

Teleop

85.6 60%

Endgame

27.8 19%

Strengths

· 59 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7833, 5410, 6404

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7833, 5410, 6404

Auto

14.4 13%

Teleop

71.3 65%

Endgame

24.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.7pts

Blue projected score101.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.1
Score range: 75–170
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.7Season APEX204.2

30.3Auto14.4

85.6Teleop71.3

27.8Endgame24

89Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	23
teleop	101	19
endgame	53	9
foul	0	0
total	206	51

Result

Final score

206 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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