Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.33 – 250.55

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.1 ±17.3

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 64.46Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6686Bionic Broncos

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -34.73Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 102.6Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386 ±17.3

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 45.84Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 159.08Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11474SEED Bulldogs Byte!

Provisional

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 45.63Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4707, 6686, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4707, 6686, 3932

Auto

33.9 26%

Teleop

54.3 42%

Endgame

40.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6743, 2383, 11474

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6743, 2383, 11474

Auto

30.8 13%

Teleop

147.9 61%

Endgame

62.6 26%

Strengths

· 2383 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.3pts

Blue projected score250.6pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.2
Score range: 105–278
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.1Season APEX386

33.9Auto30.8

54.3Teleop147.9

40.1Endgame62.6

155Consistency175

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	50
teleop	72	151
endgame	53	54
foul	0	0
total	162	255

Result

Final score

162 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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