Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.19 – 0

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.8 ±19.2

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 33.82Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9494Hanabi

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 27.68Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9201TEAM FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 63.69Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.8 ±20.2

11436CougarBots

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX -13.72Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9779Gladiator Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 50.1Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

39544-H Electrotechs

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX -37.53Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3627, 9494, 9201

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3627, 9494, 9201

Auto

19.1 16%

Teleop

60.2 51%

Endgame

38.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11436, 9779, 3954

/ 100 compat

Projected

-1.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11436, 9779, 3954

Auto

6.3 0%

Teleop

-15.7 100%

Endgame

-3.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.2pts

Blue projected score-1.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.2
Score range: -27–152
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.8Season APEX213.8

19.1Auto6.3

60.2Teleop-15.7

38Endgame-3.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	20
teleop	18	21
endgame	18	26
foul	0	5
total	56	72

Result

Final score

56 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 70.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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