Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 176.9

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126 ±18.6

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 21.49Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9155New Tech Kraken

Season APEX 78Event APEX 4.98Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 77

6686Bionic Broncos

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -43.62Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.9 ±16

11474SEED Bulldogs Byte!

Provisional

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 42.77Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 88.86Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 45.27Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6404, 9155, 6686

/ 100 compat

Projected

-17.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6404, 9155, 6686

Auto

-8.0 59%

Teleop

-9.9 73%

Endgame

4.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11474, 9404, 8859

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11474, 9404, 8859

Auto

15.7 10%

Teleop

104.4 66%

Endgame

37.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-17.1pts

Blue projected score176.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -176.9
Score range: -28–205
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126Season APEX253.9

-8Auto15.7

-9.9Teleop104.4

4.3Endgame37.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	31
teleop	10	132
endgame	4	39
foul	0	0
total	24	202

Result

Final score

24 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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