Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.95 – 129.75

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.8 ±11.7

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 141.97Rank 1Record 9-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 124.36Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 39.62Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.7 ±14.4

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 37.62Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 65.3Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 26.83Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 8817, 1369

/ 100 compat

Projected

306 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 8817, 1369

Auto

50.1 17%

Teleop

180.2 59%

Endgame

73.0 24%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5472, 4707, 5557

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5472, 4707, 5557

Auto

29.2 22%

Teleop

54.0 40%

Endgame

50.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score306pts

Blue projected score129.8pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 176.2
Score range: 103–333
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 152.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.8Season APEX324.7

50.1Auto29.2

180.2Teleop54

73Endgame50.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	23
teleop	196	101
endgame	49	34
foul	0	0
total	309	158

Result

Final score

309 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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