Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.97 – 83.27

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.4 ±16.6

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 12.39Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 39.91Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9494Hanabi

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 18.67Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.5 ±16.5

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 39.83Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 25.24Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7652Miami Beach Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 18.2Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10323, 9404, 9494

/ 100 compat

Projected

71 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10323, 9404, 9494

Auto

24.9 34%

Teleop

22.5 31%

Endgame

24.8 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1369, 1523, 7652

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1369, 1523, 7652

Auto

21.8 25%

Teleop

30.8 35%

Endgame

36.2 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71pts

Blue projected score83.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.3
Score range: 39–115
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.4Season APEX186.5

24.9Auto21.8

22.5Teleop30.8

24.8Endgame36.2

32Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	16
teleop	32	33
endgame	7	24
foul	0	0
total	58	73

Result

Final score

58 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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