Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.8 – 210.86

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.4 ±20.2

11267MASAL

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX -27.35Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 45.99Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9040Sunset Robo Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 57.16Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.3 ±11.7

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 44.91Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 156.88Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 9.07Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11267, 6743, 9040

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11267, 6743, 9040

Auto

10.6 15%

Teleop

42.4 62%

Endgame

15.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 179, 59, 1523

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 179, 59, 1523

Auto

49.4 24%

Teleop

110.0 54%

Endgame

43.6 21%

Strengths

· 59 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.8pts

Blue projected score210.9pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.1
Score range: 50–237
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.4Season APEX532.3

10.6Auto49.4

42.4Teleop110

15.7Endgame43.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	47
teleop	14	92
endgame	40	50
foul	0	0
total	76	189

Result

Final score

76 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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