Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.57 – 79.69

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.2 ±17.7

10616Iron Eagle Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 33.11Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 19.04Rank 10Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10424ANKA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX 2.42Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.8 ±17.5

6686Bionic Broncos

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -27.72Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 43.92Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4010PrepaTec - Nautilus

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 63.49Rank 30Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10616, 48, 10424

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10616, 48, 10424

Auto

5.6 9%

Teleop

39.5 62%

Endgame

18.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6686, 3627, 4010

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6686, 3627, 4010

Auto

13.6 16%

Teleop

49.7 60%

Endgame

20.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.6pts

Blue projected score79.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.1
Score range: 28–107
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 150.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.2Season APEX148.8

5.6Auto13.6

39.5Teleop49.7

18.6Endgame20.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	14
teleop	77	1
endgame	24	13
foul	0	5
total	138	33

Result

Final score

138 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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