Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.8 – 66.19

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 143 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.8 ±15.6

11474SEED Bulldogs Byte!

Provisional

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 15.48Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 2.64Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 13.68Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.9 ±17.3

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 66.5Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9201TEAM FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 11.44Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9155New Tech Kraken

Season APEX 78Event APEX -11.75Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11474, 1369, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11474, 1369, 5410

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

26.9 100%

Endgame

-2.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8817, 9201, 9155

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8817, 9201, 9155

Auto

11.2 17%

Teleop

47.0 69%

Endgame

9.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31.8pts

Blue projected score66.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.4
Score range: 5–93
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.8Season APEX321.9

0Auto11.2

26.9Teleop47

-2.6Endgame9.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	19
teleop	111	111
endgame	26	98
foul	0	0
total	156	228

Result

Final score

156 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 143 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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