Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.89 – 83.94

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384 ±14.1

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 70.47Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1744Robo-Rays Robotics

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 48.86Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX -20.44Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±16.8

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX -16.02Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5872Wiredcats

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 28.82Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 71.14Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2383, 1744, 6404

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2383, 1744, 6404

Auto

1.0 1%

Teleop

63.0 69%

Endgame

27.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2152, 5872, 11138

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2152, 5872, 11138

Auto

9.8 12%

Teleop

45.4 53%

Endgame

29.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.9pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15
Score range: 58–125
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 143.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384Season APEX247.8

1Auto9.8

63Teleop45.4

27.3Endgame29.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	25
teleop	158	68
endgame	75	18
foul	0	0
total	251	111

Result

Final score

251 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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