Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.41 – 26.78

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 130.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226 ±19.2

9040Sunset Robo Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 32.74Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 25.43Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11436CougarBots

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 13.24Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.3 ±14.9

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 7.43Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 6.11Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 13.24Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9040, 79, 11436

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9040, 79, 11436

Auto

14.3 20%

Teleop

25.0 34%

Endgame

33.8 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2641, 179, 4707

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2641, 179, 4707

Auto

11.6 41%

Teleop

4.5 16%

Endgame

12.3 43%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.4pts

Blue projected score26.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.6
Score range: 2–96
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 139.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226Season APEX371.3

14.3Auto11.6

25Teleop4.5

33.8Endgame12.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	67
teleop	47	90
endgame	31	70
foul	30	0
total	133	227

Result

Final score

133 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 130.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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