Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.81 – 0

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 52.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.2 ±20.8

11267MASAL

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX -11.12Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7833FALCONS

Provisional

Season APEX 35Event APEX 24.29Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8791Mighty Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 65.64Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220 ±18.6

9494Hanabi

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -21.01Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

39544-H Electrotechs

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX -58.04Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4010PrepaTec - Nautilus

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 43.71Rank 30Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11267, 7833, 8791

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11267, 7833, 8791

Auto

6.9 8%

Teleop

45.3 55%

Endgame

30.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9494, 3954, 4010

/ 100 compat

Projected

-35.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9494, 3954, 4010

Auto

3.8 0%

Teleop

-38.8 100%

Endgame

2.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.8pts

Blue projected score-35.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.8
Score range: -27–106
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 149.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.2Season APEX220

6.9Auto3.8

45.3Teleop-38.8

30.5Endgame2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	31
teleop	7	25
endgame	6	3
foul	0	0
total	32	59

Result

Final score

32 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 52.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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