Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.57 – 80.74

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 513

Prediction missed · off by 238.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.8 ±18.8

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 20.86Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10635Merengue

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 43.71Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

9779Gladiator Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 66Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 707 ±12.4

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX -4.92Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 41.95Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 43.71Rank 1Record 9-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1523, 10635, 9779

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1523, 10635, 9779

Auto

25.4 19%

Teleop

71.7 55%

Endgame

33.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7403, 59, 180

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7403, 59, 180

Auto

33.5 41%

Teleop

41.4 51%

Endgame

7.0 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.6pts

Blue projected score80.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.8
Score range: 57–155
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 132.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.8Season APEX707

25.4Auto33.5

71.7Teleop41.4

33.4Endgame7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	117
teleop	41	282
endgame	18	99
foul	5	15
total	86	513

Result

Final score

86 – 513

Prediction missed · off by 238.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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