Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270 – 155.15

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 103.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.7 ±12.9

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 99.77Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 11.93Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 158.3Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432 ±16.3

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 15.35Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 85.83Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

39544-H Electrotechs

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 53.97Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 179, 6404, 108

/ 100 compat

Projected

270 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 179, 6404, 108

Auto

46.2 17%

Teleop

153.1 57%

Endgame

69.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7403, 1592, 3954

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7403, 1592, 3954

Auto

37.0 24%

Teleop

80.9 52%

Endgame

38.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score270pts

Blue projected score155.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.9
Score range: 123–302
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 175.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.7Season APEX432

46.2Auto37

153.1Teleop80.9

69.7Endgame38.3

20Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	29
teleop	101	28
endgame	18	19
foul	0	0
total	142	76

Result

Final score

142 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 103.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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