Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

278.67 – 317.26

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

256 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.6 ±13.9

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 78.48Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 111.22Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 88.97Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478 ±11.6

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 174.05Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 1.07Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 142.14Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6184, 8841, 86

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6184, 8841, 86

Auto

37.5 14%

Teleop

159.2 58%

Endgame

78.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 233, 5816, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 233, 5816, 364

Auto

52.1 17%

Teleop

180.3 57%

Endgame

81.5 26%

Strengths

· 233 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score278.7pts

Blue projected score317.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.6
Score range: 244–352
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 610 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.6Season APEX478

37.5Auto52.1

159.2Teleop180.3

78.7Endgame81.5

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	73
teleop	152	185
endgame	41	96
foul	30	0
total	256	354

Result

Final score

256 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Match videos

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