Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.78 – 309.15

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

419 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.1 ±11.7

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 146.04Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 35.96Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 153.78Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.5 ±12.9

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 136.25Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 69.98Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 102.92Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 21, 108

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 21, 108

Auto

52.5 16%

Teleop

206.7 62%

Endgame

74.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 386, 6722, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 6722, 5410

Auto

42.0 14%

Teleop

184.8 61%

Endgame

77.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score335.8pts

Blue projected score309.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.6
Score range: 275–370
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 786 vs event baseline 190.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.1Season APEX393.5

52.5Auto42

206.7Teleop184.8

74.9Endgame77.5

1Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	41
teleop	251	190
endgame	123	131
foul	0	5
total	419	367

Result

Final score

419 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 pts

Match videos

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