Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.08 – 297.07

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

231 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.4 ±16.5

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 43.5Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 42.13Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 73.45Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478 ±11.6

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 167.21Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -5.05Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 134.91Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 801, 4118, 10219

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 801, 4118, 10219

Auto

26.9 17%

Teleop

78.4 49%

Endgame

53.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 233, 5816, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 233, 5816, 364

Auto

52.8 18%

Teleop

175.6 60%

Endgame

64.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.1pts

Blue projected score297.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138
Score range: 125–331
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 186.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.4Season APEX478

26.9Auto52.8

78.4Teleop175.6

53.2Endgame64.6

26Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	52
teleop	123	198
endgame	51	145
foul	0	0
total	231	395

Result

Final score

231 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts

Match videos

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