Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

240.14 – 244.72

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±15.8

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 78.74Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 94.21Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 67.19Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±12.2

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 86.6Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 38.52Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 119.6Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7130, 4013, 8324

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7130, 4013, 8324

Auto

42.5 18%

Teleop

141.9 62%

Endgame

46.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4576, 5472, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4576, 5472, 744

Auto

26.3 11%

Teleop

149.7 63%

Endgame

61.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score240.1pts

Blue projected score244.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.6
Score range: 207–278
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 593 vs event baseline 184.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.8Season APEX365.2

42.5Auto26.3

141.9Teleop149.7

46.2Endgame61.9

79Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	45
teleop	186	132
endgame	75	102
foul	5	0
total	314	279

Result

Final score

314 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 pts

Match videos

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