Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

298.58 – 309.45

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

295 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 3.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478 ±11.6

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 167.93Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -4.4Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 135.05Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.5 ±12.9

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 135.34Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 71.28Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 102.83Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 233, 5816, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 233, 5816, 364

Auto

47.1 16%

Teleop

187.2 62%

Endgame

69.1 23%

Strengths

· 233 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 386, 6722, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 6722, 5410

Auto

37.6 12%

Teleop

187.9 62%

Endgame

78.1 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score298.6pts

Blue projected score309.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.9
Score range: 266–342
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 182.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478Season APEX393.5

47.1Auto37.6

187.2Teleop187.9

69.1Endgame78.1

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	57
teleop	141	176
endgame	54	79
foul	30	0
total	295	312

Result

Final score

295 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 3.1 pts

Match videos

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