Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.98 – 174.58

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.1 ±11.7

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 139.14Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 29.9Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 147.94Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.4 ±16.5

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 48.08Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 48.29Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 78.21Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 21, 108

/ 100 compat

Projected

317 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 21, 108

Auto

63.0 20%

Teleop

176.0 56%

Endgame

76.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 801, 4118, 10219

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 801, 4118, 10219

Auto

26.5 15%

Teleop

94.0 54%

Endgame

52.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score317pts

Blue projected score174.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.4
Score range: 142–350
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 181.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.1Season APEX315.4

63Auto26.5

176Teleop94

76.2Endgame52.5

17Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	27
teleop	281	48
endgame	72	55
foul	0	0
total	382	130

Result

Final score

382 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Match videos

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