Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.01 – 235.62

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.6 ±13.9

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 80.25Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 115.33Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 94.43Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±12.2

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 82.51Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 35.32Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 117.79Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6184, 8841, 86

/ 100 compat

Projected

290 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6184, 8841, 86

Auto

40.9 14%

Teleop

173.7 61%

Endgame

70.0 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4576, 5472, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4576, 5472, 744

Auto

26.2 12%

Teleop

141.9 62%

Endgame

59.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score290pts

Blue projected score235.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.4
Score range: 204–322
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.6Season APEX365.2

40.9Auto26.2

173.7Teleop141.9

70Endgame59.3

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	30
teleop	150	166
endgame	129	68
foul	5	5
total	310	269

Result

Final score

310 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Match videos

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