Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

351.43 – 326.07

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.1 ±11.7

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 151.94Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 40.78Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 158.71Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478 ±11.6

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 176.4Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 3.78Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 145.89Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 21, 108

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 21, 108

Auto

51.1 15%

Teleop

208.9 60%

Endgame

88.8 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 233, 5816, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 233, 5816, 364

Auto

59.2 18%

Teleop

181.2 56%

Endgame

83.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score351.4pts

Blue projected score326.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.4
Score range: 290–387
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 696 vs event baseline 199.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.1Season APEX478

51.1Auto59.2

208.9Teleop181.2

88.8Endgame83.7

1Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	54
teleop	203	197
endgame	66	78
foul	0	5
total	362	334

Result

Final score

362 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 pts

Match videos

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