Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.39 – 354.96

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 715.6 ±11.2

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX -7.53Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 188.09Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 218.83Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486.1 ±11.7

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 153.11Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 41.92Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 159.93Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10162, 6647, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10162, 6647, 2992

Auto

93.1 23%

Teleop

228.8 58%

Endgame

75.3 19%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4065, 21, 108

/ 100 compat

Projected

355 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 21, 108

Auto

51.0 14%

Teleop

216.9 61%

Endgame

86.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score399.4pts

Blue projected score355pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.4
Score range: 320–434
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 784 vs event baseline 195.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

715.6Season APEX486.1

93.1Auto51

228.8Teleop216.9

75.3Endgame86

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	52
teleop	261	175
endgame	77	101
foul	0	10
total	446	338

Result

Final score

446 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Match videos

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