Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.45 – 157.02

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.1 ±20

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10996SRC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 6Rank 45Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3242ILLUMICATS

Provisional

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX -Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.5 ±12.8

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX -Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 68.86Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX 57.43Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8753, 10996, 3242

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8753, 10996, 3242

Auto

22.4 33%

Teleop

31.9 47%

Endgame

13.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 364, 4576, 10162

/ 100 compat

Projected

157 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 364, 4576, 10162

Auto

29.2 19%

Teleop

92.2 59%

Endgame

35.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score67.5pts

Blue projected score157pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.6
Score range: 34–190
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 184.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.1Season APEX499.5

4Auto20

1.1Teleop76.9

0.9Endgame29.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	54
teleop	18	103
endgame	14	43
foul	0	0
total	43	200

Result

Final score

43 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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