Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.27 – 146.9

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228 ±22

9698Zipbombs of BGCNF

Provisional

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 16.73Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9720Metal Head Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 30.13Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6145War Eagles

Provisional

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 17.41Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241 ±19.4

4179Tahisco Techs

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 17.88Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3242ILLUMICATS

Provisional

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 45.78Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 83.24Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9698, 9720, 6145

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9698, 9720, 6145

Auto

17.3 32%

Teleop

25.3 47%

Endgame

11.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4179, 3242, 4576

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4179, 3242, 4576

Auto

15.7 11%

Teleop

83.9 57%

Endgame

47.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.3pts

Blue projected score146.9pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.6
Score range: 32–179
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 179.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228Season APEX241

17.3Auto15.7

25.3Teleop83.9

11.3Endgame47.6

11Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	32
teleop	17	63
endgame	24	47
foul	15	0
total	73	142

Result

Final score

73 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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