Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.62 – 173.78

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430 ±18.4

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 50.59Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9627Yellow Haze

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 1.43Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 140.6Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.3 ±17.3

10471Gamarobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 15.05Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 18.57Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 140.16Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4118, 9627, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4118, 9627, 4065

Auto

9.3 5%

Teleop

110.9 58%

Endgame

72.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10471, 3164, 386

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10471, 3164, 386

Auto

30.5 18%

Teleop

105.6 61%

Endgame

37.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score192.6pts

Blue projected score173.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.8
Score range: 142–225
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 179.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430Season APEX346.3

9.3Auto30.5

110.9Teleop105.6

72.5Endgame37.7

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	10
teleop	116	66
endgame	48	49
foul	0	0
total	176	125

Result

Final score

176 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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