Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.73 – 297.63

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.3 ±18.2

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -14.84Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10159PHS MAC-ros

Provisional

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 9.59Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 50.98Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.4 ±12.8

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 69.97Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 104.03Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 123.63Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10981, 10159, 5276

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10981, 10159, 5276

Auto

20.5 45%

Teleop

6.1 13%

Endgame

19.0 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6184, 8841, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.6 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6184, 8841, 364

Auto

46.9 16%

Teleop

190.2 65%

Endgame

55.9 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score45.7pts

Blue projected score297.6pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -251.9
Score range: 14–330
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 464 vs event baseline 177.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.3Season APEX439.4

20.5Auto46.9

6.1Teleop190.2

19Endgame55.9

14Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	70
teleop	28	268
endgame	24	59
foul	0	0
total	67	397

Result

Final score

67 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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