Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.89 – 412.89

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 122 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.8 ±12.7

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -6.31Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 79.26Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 144.94Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.1 ±12.8

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 237.9Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 107.33Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 67.66Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5816, 4576, 108

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5816, 4576, 108

Auto

61.5 28%

Teleop

120.9 54%

Endgame

40.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2992, 4013, 801

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2992, 4013, 801

Auto

72.7 18%

Teleop

262.5 65%

Endgame

70.7 17%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score217.9pts

Blue projected score412.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195
Score range: 186–445
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 176.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.8Season APEX466.1

61.5Auto72.7

120.9Teleop262.5

40.2Endgame70.7

40Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	71
teleop	188	87
endgame	62	47
foul	0	15
total	269	220

Result

Final score

269 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 122 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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