Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.6 – 32.34

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±17

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 10.61Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 72.01Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4179Tahisco Techs

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 21.98Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.5 ±20.5

10996SRC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 18.84Rank 45Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 6.41Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3502Octo(PI)Rates

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 7.09Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6473, 8324, 4179

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6473, 8324, 4179

Auto

19.3 19%

Teleop

56.5 55%

Endgame

27.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10996, 10228, 3502

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10996, 10228, 3502

Auto

9.6 33%

Teleop

-2.3 0%

Endgame

22.2 75%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.6pts

Blue projected score32.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.3
Score range: 0–137
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 179.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211Season APEX158.5

19.3Auto9.6

56.5Teleop-2.3

27.5Endgame22.2

107Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	26
teleop	24	12
endgame	21	2
foul	0	0
total	53	40

Result

Final score

53 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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