Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

200.24 – 239.09

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.1 ±19.7

10471Gamarobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 21.74Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 170.48Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9627Yellow Haze

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 8.02Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.1 ±15.9

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 96.89Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9720Metal Head Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 22.09Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 120.11Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10471, 233, 9627

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10471, 233, 9627

Auto

14.0 7%

Teleop

135.5 68%

Endgame

51.2 26%

Strengths

· 233 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5410, 9720, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5410, 9720, 744

Auto

29.3 12%

Teleop

137.3 57%

Endgame

73.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200.2pts

Blue projected score239.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.8
Score range: 168–271
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 176.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.1Season APEX359.1

14Auto29.3

135.5Teleop137.3

51.2Endgame73.1

56Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	33
teleop	74	123
endgame	64	42
foul	0	70
total	154	268

Result

Final score

154 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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