Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.12 – 185.66

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.8 ±12.9

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX 49.48Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 129.22Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -8.58Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.9 ±19

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 139.13Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 41Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9698Zipbombs of BGCNF

Provisional

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 5.53Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9313, 364, 5816

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9313, 364, 5816

Auto

31.7 19%

Teleop

97.8 58%

Endgame

40.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 108, 4118, 9698

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 108, 4118, 9698

Auto

47.8 27%

Teleop

102.3 57%

Endgame

27.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.1pts

Blue projected score185.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.5
Score range: 138–218
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 175.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.8Season APEX361.9

31.7Auto47.8

97.8Teleop102.3

40Endgame27.9

68Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	41
teleop	93	113
endgame	23	107
foul	0	0
total	175	261

Result

Final score

175 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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