Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.2 – 120.52

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 88.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.9 ±13.5

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 78.07Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -27.74Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 230.87Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.3 ±17.7

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 75.35Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 29.32Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9493TechWasps923

Provisional

Season APEX 19.2Event APEX 15.85Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 86, 10981, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 86, 10981, 2992

Auto

55.8 20%

Teleop

159.4 57%

Endgame

66.5 24%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 801, 7431, 9493

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 801, 7431, 9493

Auto

23.6 20%

Teleop

65.4 57%

Endgame

26.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score281.2pts

Blue projected score120.5pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.7
Score range: 90–312
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 174.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.9Season APEX194.3

55.8Auto23.6

159.4Teleop65.4

66.5Endgame26.2

45Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	46
teleop	217	6
endgame	82	13
foul	15	0
total	403	65

Result

Final score

403 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 88.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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