Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.12 – 166.92

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.4 ±13.3

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 138.65Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX -2.2Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 106.67Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±14.5

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 24.93Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 65.88Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 76.11Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 386, 10162, 8841

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 10162, 8841

Auto

44.0 18%

Teleop

143.5 59%

Endgame

57.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4622, 8324, 4576

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4622, 8324, 4576

Auto

42.1 27%

Teleop

93.3 60%

Endgame

20.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score243.1pts

Blue projected score166.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.2
Score range: 136–274
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 440 vs event baseline 173.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.4Season APEX307

44Auto42.1

143.5Teleop93.3

57.5Endgame20.2

3Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	60
teleop	197	96
endgame	20	35
foul	0	0
total	249	191

Result

Final score

249 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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