Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

242.88 – 259.71

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 102.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.4 ±13

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 145.22Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 75.64Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 22.02Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.4 ±15.3

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 154.26Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 14.95Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 90.5Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 6184, 6473

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 6184, 6473

Auto

20.2 9%

Teleop

147.8 62%

Endgame

68.9 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 108, 8753, 7130

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 108, 8753, 7130

Auto

57.4 22%

Teleop

149.3 58%

Endgame

49.0 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score242.9pts

Blue projected score259.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.8
Score range: 211–292
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.4Season APEX359.4

20.2Auto57.4

147.8Teleop149.3

68.9Endgame49

50Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	67
teleop	65	81
endgame	56	12
foul	0	0
total	138	160

Result

Final score

138 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 102.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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